Monthly Archives: May 2012

Lightning Round – 2012/05/15

Roosh shows an intro program to learning game. Bookmarking it for if/when I attempt to learn it in earnest.

Advice for learning social skills, for those of us who are not so socially. Combine with above.

Another good question to ask yourself. What do you want?

Uxuriousness is an awesome word I didn’t know before. Avoid it.

Worship: Jesus is King not Boyfriend.

An inspiration to us all.

Not sure what I think on it, but I’ve seen some convincing arguments for not voting recently.

I went to a nightclub/bar (I’m not sure which) once, but I didn’t care for it. Seems others don’t as well.

Good news on the oil front.

How much longer can the statist myth continue? (More)

More evils from the War on Drugs.

Free thought is only allowed if you think the proper thoughts. (More)

(h/t SDA, Private Man, InstaPundit)

30 Days of Discipline Update

I’m now half-way through my attempt at the 30 Days of Discipline, so I figured a status report is in order to keep me honest.

Of the 12 points (I’m not going to outline them, buy the book and support Victor).

For disciplines #1, #2, #3, #6, #8, #9, and #12, I’ve been following them pretty good; a mistake or two here or there, but overall I’ve been fairly good on following through on the disciplines.

I must say though, cold showers suck hard.

I did #5 for the first week and a half, but the last half of last week I fell off in discipline. So, I recommitted myself to it Monday, and will follow through with it for the rest of the 30 Days.

#7, I’ve mostly followed, but just kind of forgot about it for the second half of last week. Out of all of the disciplines, this is probably the easiest, but I simply forgot for a couple days. The list is very useful, I’ve finished a number of smaller tasks I’ve been meaning to get to for months.  I recommitted myself to it on Monday and will follow through for the rest of the 30 Days.

As I thought going in, #4 was and is the hardest. I followed it for the first week, but fell on the Sunday. I then succeeded for the first half of the second week, but fell completely off for the second half of the week. I’m recommitting myself to it today and plan to follow through for the 30 Days. I plan to get around to Ferd’s books on the subject this week.

As for #11, as I stated previously I switched my goal a week into the 30 Days after buying Victor’s entrepreneur book. I’ve started the project and got it going, but may have made a mistake and may have to start over.

So, overall, I’ve been doing good, but I should be doing better.

Tuition Bubble

Here’s the New York Times running only a bit behind in reporting on the tuition bubble. I thought this would be a decent time to weigh in on the issue.

the average debt in 2011 was $23,300, with 10 percent owing more than $54,000 and 3 percent more than $100,000

To be honest, this is not that bad. $23k is a lot, but livable, even 54k is not insurmountable, but for the 3%, $100k is a serious commitment. In some areas equivalent to a mortgage on a starter home.

The problem though, is that these are ok only if there is employment for those taking the loans. The NYT doesn’t cover this in this article, but the real problem is half of these people graduating are not going to have jobs or will be underemployed.

$23k in debt is doable if you make $40k a year, even $120k ($900/month according to the article) is doable if you make $60k a year coming out of university and live frugally for a few years.

But, if you are unemployed or working part-time as a barrista, there is no way to keep payments up on much more than a few thousand dollars worth of debt and still be able to advance in life.

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The NYT misses that the tuition bubble is not a bubble because tuition costs are high; an expensive degree can be an excellent investment for both the lender and borrower if it increases future earnings.

The whole article is off-base as high tuition costs are irrelevant if the economic benefits of the degree match or exceed the cost of the degree.

The tuition bubble is a bubble because a lot of these degrees are worthless.

So why are they worthless? Part of it is simply the transition to post-scarcity, even highly educated and skilled people may simply be replaced by machines. Some of it is because these degrees teach no useful skills, such as Master of Puppetry, an awesome album but a crappy degree. But there is another, even more fundamental, problem that the NYT ignores almost completely.

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The main problem is touched upon later on in the piece, but only very obliquely:

the main job of the admissions staff, after all, is to admit students

An off-hand reference in the second half of a sentence at the bottom of a paragraph is all the NYT devotes to the  crux of the tuition bubble.

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Huh? Isn’t admissions staff’s job to admit students?

No, the admissions staff’s job is to screen out students for whom university (or college) is not appropriate.

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Doesn’t admissions already do this?

No. It doesn’t. 68% of high school graduates go to college.

Thank about that for a second.

The average graduate is going to college

Remember back to your high school graduation; think about your average classmate.

The guy who wasn’t particularly bright or particularly stupid.

Do you think he would benefit from spending 4 years learning political theory or reading Rousseau?

Do you think it would benefit anyone else that he “learned” this?

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The evidence says he doesn’t.

One-third of those entering college drop-out.

They pay the expense of a couple years of college and do not even get the dubious benefits of a degree.

The college system is taking advantage of these people who shouldn’t be in college.

****

One-third of college students are dropping out, at the same time, grade inflation is running rampant.

College is becoming increasingly easy, yet still a third of students still can’t hack it.

The admissions people are failing their job. One-third of people entering university are not capable of completing even the dumbed-down modern university curriculum.

Think about how many more would not be capable of completing college if standards were similar to those 50 years ago.

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Look at this post from Adacious Epigone on IQ by intended major from a few years ago.

Look at education, public admin, business, psychology, legal professions, health professionals, etc.

The average incoming student for all of these is only around average intelligence. About half of them are of below average intelligence.

This is why there is a tuition bubble.

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It used to be that a college degree meant you were a cut above the rest; that you were a competent, intelligent individual.

Now all a college degree shows is that you are able to stomach a university’s bullshit for a few years and are not a complete dullard.

That’s why your degree is worthless.

It doesn’t signal you’re a superior intellect with a strong knowledge of your specialty.

All it shows is that you’re not completely incompetent and are able to parrot BS back to the BS’ers. How much is not being completely incompetent worth to an employer?

Even a high GPA doesn’t mean much. With grade inflation everybody’s GPA is fairly high, how can an employer trust that you actually earned yours?

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As an aside, look at public admin and social services: 96.3.

Do you want to know one reason why your government doesn’t work very well? The people in public admin are being educated to run the government. Do not think that these are not going to be the front-line clerks at the DMV, or even their supervisors; these are actually the people who are going to university to learn how to create public policy. They are the ones who will be creating government policy and regulations that will control your life.

Most of them are of  below average intelligence.

Think about that for a minute. Please don’t weep.

Of course, the average business major is not much better, barely scraping by at 101. 2.

And we wonder why the US economy is stagnating?

Teachers are at 99.3. Half of all teachers are of below average intelligence. Here’s where you can start weeping for the future.

Your kid is likely being taught by someone of average or below average intelligence.

If you’re reading a post about the economics of post-secondary education on a blog for leisure (like say, this post you’re reading right now), it’s highly likely the large majority of these teachers, bureaucrats, and businessmen running things and teaching your children are much more stupid than you.

Aren’t you feeling comforted?

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Thankfully the drop-out rate is so high. I’d hate to think what the school system and government would be like if a third of these sup-par students didn’t fail to finish their degrees.

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So, after all that, you’re probably understanding why the tuition bubble exists.

It exists because too many people are getting a degree.

Everybody wants to enter the road to the professional, white-collar, middle-class, which is what university is thought of as now.

But not everybody is capable of being a white-collar professional.

Of course, modern liberal dogma can’t admit that some people are just not capable of being white-collar professionals, after all, we are all equal. The Bible (or Stephen Gould, depending on your religious beliefs) and the Constitution (or your sociology professor, depending on your political beliefs)  say so.

So those in charge, those who would read the NYT, can not and will not prevent those who shouldn’t be going to college from going to college.

Instead, they’ll encourage them to go. They’ll give these marginal students huge, government-backed loans they’ll never be able to pay back. They’ll lower academic standards as far as they can go, then lower a them a bit more, destroying any academic, economic, or signalling value of your degree in the process.

Doing otherwise would expose their ideology for the lie it is and their ideology takes precedence over the good of these marginal students, not to mention the other students whose degrees are made worthless.

So, as these marginal students flood colleges, demand for college education increases, so tuition goes up.

The academic value of the degree erodes, as grade inflation and lowered academic standards become necessary to keep these people in college, and maybe (hopefully) let them graduate.

The economic values of these degrees plummets. Your degree no longer signals competence, knowledge, and intelligence to an employer; all it signals is a lack of incompetence. Why should he pay well for that? Why should he hire the marginally competent at all?

Thus a bubble. Paying more and more for less and less.

One thing though, bubbles can’t last forever. Reality always wins in the end.

Eventually, the post-secondary education system will run into reality.

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Economists do not predict a collapse of the student loan system, which would, in essence, mean wholesale default.

NYT’s economists never fail to be amusing. I wonder if this was Krugman or Friedman, maybe both?

Those who are blinded by ideology will run full tilt into the wall of reality. They will then act surprised.

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With more than $1 trillion in student loans outstanding in this country

$1 trillion, that’s almost 7% of GDP. If a large percentage of these loans default, this will be a major economic catastrophe. It may be possible for the US government to forgive them, but that will be a significant increase in national debt.

Students are likely stuck with this debt.

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So what can we do?

Short answer: nothing.

Long answer: That’s a question for another post.

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One last note:

Leaders of the for-profit industry defended themselves

I’m usually a staunch defender of the free market, but in this case, all I can say is:

Fuck them.

The for-profit college industry is a brood of blood-sucking parasites taking advantage of students who should never set foot near a college for their own benefit, and the student loans programs in a disgusting display of parasitic corporate welfare. May their whole industry rot.

For Mother…

For mother, who will probably never see this,
and for those other mothers who may.

Thank you.

Thank you for being there for me when I came home,
it meant so much to be greeted after a rough day.

Thank you for making our house a home.
A place of safety and love to which I could come.

Thank you for asking about my day.
I may not have responded and may have acted annoyed,
but it meant a lot to know someone cared.

Thank you for being there for me.
You could have had a career, we may had more stuff,
but instead you were home, which was worth so much more.

Thank you for those meals you prepared.
I may not have looked after my health, but you did for me.

Thank you for staying with dad.
I know there were fights, there was unhappiness, and at times
it may have been easy to leave or have him leave, but you stayed.

Thank you for your prayers.
I may not have always sought God’s help,
but you sought it for me.

Thank you mother for birthing me.
I know it was painful and I know it was hard.
You could have ended me before I even was,
but instead you let me experience life.

Thank you mother for the love and acceptance you provided,
even when I was unlovable, you loved.

Thank you mother for the work you did for us.
I was often ungrateful, but still you worked.

Thank you mother for all you have done for me.
Without you I would not be the man I am today.

Thank you mother.

“Mother o’ Mine
If I were hanged on the highest hill,
Mother o’ mine, O mother o’ mine
I know whose love would follow me still,
Mother o’ mine, O mother o’ mine!

If I were drowned in the deepest sea,
Mother o’ mine, O mother o’ mine
I know whose tears would come down to me,
Mother o’ mine, O mother o’ mine!

If I were damned of body and soul,
I know whose prayers would make me whole,
Mother o’ mine, 0 mother o’ mine!”

– Kipling

The Bookshelf: Married Man Sex Life Primer

I finished Athol Kay’s Married Man Sex Life Primer 2011; at the same time I read his How To Answer “Do These Pants Make My Ass Look Fat?”: and get laid like tile! (hereafter referred to as MMSL and HTA).

MMSL

MMSL is essentially a book on using game in marriage. Athol lays out the biochemical reactions that underlie love and underscores the concept of sex ranks and how they work in the sexual marketplace and in marriage. He gives out all the good red pill information on how to be alpha and keep your wife happy and sexually charged, but, unlike most game guides, he applies this to creating longer-term relationships and marriage rather than just scoring lays. In doing this he emphasizes the importance of displaying beta traits in maintaining a marriage.

His Male Action Plan (MAP) lays out the steps you need to improve your marriage or to secure the best post-marriage deal should your wife be unwilling to help improve the marriage. He lays out what you need to do to get your wife (and other women) to desire you. He also has advice on how to get your wife to try naughty things with you that you may not know how to introduce otherwise.

MMSL is a softer red pill. If you want to introduce the red pill to someone who you don’t think would be receptive to it or is more traditionally inclined, they would probably be much more likely to accept the information from Athol than say Roosh or Roissy. I would highly recommend this book as a gateway to red pill thinking.

What the MMSL is not is a primer for those looking to pick up women. He will occasionally talk about how his advice applies to pick-ups, but this is generally tangential to his main focus: marriages. So, if you’re looking for a game guide, look elsewhere.

Similarly, if you’re currently looking for a wife, this guide will not really help you find one. It will help prepare you for improving yourself to maximize your value on the sexual marketplace and has some good advice on choosing a wife, for which it is invaluable and highly recommended, but it will not have much information on the finding a women or going through the whole dating/courtship thing.

As for the writing itself, Athol’s style is both straightforward and fun. He doesn’t mince words or sugarcoat things, but is very frank. The book is also filled with levity, while the topics and writing are serious, you will still enjoy yourself and have the occasional laugh. It’s an informative and engaging book.

I will note, conservative religious folks may have some moral problems with this book. Athol does lay out a defence of divorce if a wife does not meet her husband’s sexual needs. He also seems to advocate some mild flirting with women who aren’t you’re wife and the use of porn in marriage, which may not strike some as entirely moral.

On the other hand, Martin Luther, father of the Protestant Reformation himself, made similar arguments concerning divorce. Luther’s advice of when divorce is appropriate: “Then it is time for the man to say: If you are not willing, another woman is; if the wife is not willing, bring on the maid.” is very much echoed by Athol’s advice. So, I wouldn’t judge Athol’s advice on this too harshly.

The big question you’re probably asking though, is does his MAP work? The answer: I don’t have a wife to practice it on, so I really can’t tell you. I can say that a number of people have claimed Athol has saved their marriage, so take that as you will.

For myself, when I do enter a long-term relationship, I will be applying the MAP. I will also be trying to apply what I can of it in my singleness.

If you’re married or looking to be married, I would highly recommend this book. If someone you care about is having marriage/sex problems, buy them this book.

HTA

HTA is a collection of posts from Athol’s blog. They’re all great posts, and the writing is and information is good.  All the praise of MMSL just as easily applies to HTA. The problem though, is that a much, if not most, of the information in HTA is in MMSL, so if you have read the MMSL, a good portion of HTA will be rereading what you’ve already read.

Of the two, the MMSL has more information and is better organized, as it is written as a book, in a logical fashion by rather than as a collection of essays written in chronological order.

There is some information in HTA that is not in MMSL, but usually it is not really the important stuff you’re buying these books for. There are a number of essays in HTA talking about his own personal life and relationships that is not in MMSL; these can be used as illustrations for his larger points, and if you’re interested you may want to pick it up.

But overall, the HTA is unnecessary if you have or will be reading the MMSL (which you should be), so I can’t recommend it. On the other hand, there’s something to be said for supporting Athol in his endeavours to help others’ marriages, so you may want to buy it to support the cause.

Recommendation:

I would highly recommend buying the Married Man Sex Life Primer 2011. Although, Athol is currently finishing up his 2012 primer, so you may want to wait a month or two, or however long and get that instead.

As for How To Answer “Do These Pants Make My Ass Look Fat?”, buy it if you want to support Athol or if you really liked MMSL, but if you buy the MMSL, you won’t miss very much if you don’t get the HTA.

Lightning Round – 2012/05/08

A good question to ask yourself.

Something else to keep in mind: nobody cares.

Since when did Frost start writing for the New York Times?

Be good, not nice. Good advice for the Christian man. A bit more on the same topic.

In Soviet America… (insert Yakov Smirnoff joke)

The internet needs the UN like a kulak needs stalinism.

Wonder how feminists will respond to this?

Maybe stagnant wages are caused by Americans nearing maximum productivity.

How to buy happiness.

Nothing we didn’t already know about environmentalism.

We can hope, but Hayekianism does not benefit the state, so I doubt it.

How to retire at 27 (and screw over the next generation).

You mean fighting climate change and overpopulation may hurt people?

Why our generation is screwed.

How true. One of the things I like most about Harper is how much all the wrong people hate him.

(h/t Instapundit, SDA)

Projects and Motivation

I mentioned earlier that I’d write about some projects I had planned, so here it is.

One thing I want to use this blog for is just keeping myself motivated in these projects. I have a couple ideas for projects that I hope might create an alternative income stream at some point, but I never get around to working on them. So this blog post is mostly for me to clarify my thoughts and to help motivate me to work on them. If you want to read, feel free, but there’s no analysis here and I don’t know if it will be worthwhile to anybody else; I’m writing this solely for myself.

Website Project #1

About half a year ago, I identified a major gap in one of my hobbies that could be filled through the creation of a social website. I’m pretty sure there’s demand for the project from those within my hobby, as I’ve seen much interest expressed in something similar throughout the hobby’s websites. I’m also pretty sure that there would be a chance at significant revenues as a primary advertiser for the hobby for whoever filled the demand.

On the other hand, I’ve seen a few other sites that tried to fill this demand, but none of them achieved the critical mass of users necessary to make the projects viable, so none of them meet the demand.

That’s the problem. The website would require a lot of work (a year, likely more, of my spare time) as I would need to a lot of programming in php, which I don’t know, but I know I would be capable of doing it. I also know that if I could attain a critical mass of users the site would contribute significantly to the hobby and I could probably monetize it for a decent revenue stream, but I have no idea how I would reach the tipping point when I’ve seen a number of other similar sites that have failed to do so. I started working on it somewhat half-heartedly a few weeks back, and getting a good start on this project was, until today, going to be my goal for the 30 Days of Discipline.

Website Project #2

But today, I had a better idea. I purchased Bold & Determined‘s Spartan Entrepreneur’s Guide (I’ll review this at a later time). I don’t think I’m going to follow his plan as is, (I’ll explain in my coming review), but his ideas on affiliate marketing got me to thinking and I had another idea for a different sort of website using affiliate marketing. This website would require less work upfront, but I could create the framework in a much shorter time-frame and roll out the content over time, unlike the first project which is more or less an all-or-nothing affair. I have to do a bit of research on this to make sure the possible demand for the idea hasn’t been filled, but an initial scan looks positive. So, I’ve decided to change my goal for the 30 Days to creating the framework for this site.

Blog Series

For the blog, I have three longer series I’d like to work out, and if they are well-received, maybe roll them out into clef-published e-books a la Worthless.

The first series I’ve already started: An Economic Analysis of Marriage. Over time, I’d like this to be a complete guide to helping young men considering marriage to calculate the potential costs and benefits of marriage.

I’ve been writing the first post of the second series for over the last few days, and it’s almost completed. Hopefully, it will be out this week. The working title of the series is Biblical Alpha Males, and that’s all I’m giving for now.

The third series is still in the conceptual stage, but essentially, it will be guide for omega males.  As I’ve mentioned before, I was once an omega male, a loser; I’ve since worked my way out of this, but it was not easy. I figure if I create a guide based on my experiences it might help other Omegas in the future.

Novels

I’ve also had three ideas for books that I would like to write at some point:

The first is an idea I have for an epic fantasy series. At this point, I have a strong concept and have developed a story arc that would span at least 5 books. The concept for the series came together last summer as two mediocre ideas I had been playing with in my head came together to make one idea I think is great. I’ve thought about it quite a bit since then. I really want to create this. The only problem is motivating myself to sit down and write. I started writing about half a year ago, and have been writing here and there over time, but I find that while I can just think about the story for hours on end, actually putting words to paper is much more difficult. I’ve almost completed the first chapter and plan to continue on.

The second idea came from an idea I originally had in high school. It’s a near-future sf techo-thriller. I wrote about five chapters in high school, but realized how juvenile, derivative, and inadequate the plot and characterization I was creating were, but the germ of the idea stuck. Since then, I figured out another theme to add to it, which really makes the idea work. I started writing it again about 2 years ago. I finished one chapter, then ran into a major problem: the novel requires a large amount of research on current British culture and socio-economics. The project was dropped as I did not have the time to research this and the epic fantasy idea began to take over my creative thoughts. It does have a working title though: Rivers of Blood. I hope to get back to it at some point; if I do it right it could be major; the idea is good.

The third is the least developed. It’s a mythological fantasy novel based around the modern world. It would require a lot of research on Norse Mythology, but could be interesting; it would probably end up having to be a series, but how long, I have no idea. It’s far behind the other two ideas in priority, but could turn into something at some point.

Over time, I plan to occasionally post status updates of my projects on here to keep myself motivated to continue.

The Malaise of Wealth: the Transition to Post-Scarcity

I probably don’t need to regale you about the economic troubles of our generation. Manufacturing work has been declining for decades hurting the economic prospects of the working class. Professional occupations are now suffering as well, enough so that even the mainstream media gets it. Unemployment is near 50% for new graduates and young people are being hammered by the recession. You all know the drill.

Everybody has a solution to the problem. Obama, Krugman, and the Keynesians say throw fiat money at the economy until it moves. Conservatives and libertarians decry excessive regulations and taxes. Economic nationalists say close the border, criminalize outsourcing, end free trade, and put up tariffs, while neo-liberals call for more free trade.

They blame the rich, they blame welfare bums, they blame bureaucrats, they blame capitalists, they blame the young, they blame the old.

The thing is, they’re all wrong.

There is no real solution to Western economic malaise, as the “malaise” is not actually an economic problem.

Our economic “problem” is that we are too wealthy.

Of course, this doesn’t seem to make sense. Unemployment is high, labour force participation is declining, and people can’t get jobs. How can I possibly say we are too wealthy?

If you look at GDP, it has increased steadily for decades. The “great recession” we blame for our economic woes caused the economy to fall to 2007 levels in 2009 (and we weren’t poor in 2007, at the height of the housing boom, were we?), which was promptly righted in 2010. In terms of what we produce, the goods that actually make our life better, the effects were minor.

Our economic malaise is one not of a lack of production, but of a lack of employment.

Or stated another way: as a society, we are continually producing more of the goods we want, but we have to do less work to get it.

It is the second part of that sentence that is the problem: we have to do less work to get it.

That is the cause of our economic problems. That is why there are no jobs, there is no work for people to do.

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The problem is that we are in the process of transferring from a capitalist economic system to a post-scarcity “economic system” and nobody is ready for it. It is something that is completely out of most people’s understanding.

Post-scarcity is a word that some of you may have heard of before, or you may not have. So I’ll explain: a post-scarcity economy is one where scarcity has been overcome, where all people have access to as many goods and services as they want, with minimal labour necessary to produce them. In a post-scarcity economy, people do not have what we would consider to be jobs; because most goods and services can be produced with negligible labour.

People will work, but it will be according to the old Marxist saw “[communism] makes it possible for me to do one thing today and another tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner, just as I have a mind, without ever becoming hunter, fisherman, herdsman or critic.”

Work will be something you engage in because you want to, not because you have to. You may choose to hunt, but you will do so because you enjoy it, not because you need to eat. You may choose to design a website, but it will be in leisure, not because the boss says to. You will be able to work at whatever you want, or at nothing, because it doesn’t matter to your material wealth, or anyone else’s for that matter.

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If you want to see post-scarcity today, the best place to look is at the music industry, or perhaps more accurately, it’s continuing collapse. Music can now be made cheaply: at most it costs a couple thousand dollars in instruments and a couple thousand in recording costs. With music creations software, all it costs is a computer you already own and some pirated software to create music. Once the original act of music creation is completed it costs absolutely nothing and requires almost no labour to create another digital copy.

And that’s the whole problem; that’s why the music industry is collapsing. Music executives are finding that it is very hard to justify charging people for what they can get for free. They are fighting free music tooth and nail under the guise of copyright to protect their profits, and they are losing, badly. The economic spin-offs of this are that everybody in the music industry is going to lose their jobs eventually. Why buy a CD when I can download it for free? Why sign with a label when I can distribute my own music on the internet? Why hire a producer when production software is so cheap? Why go to HMV when I can download music at home?

The producer loses his job, the CD manufacturer loses his, the marketing exec loses his, the sales clerk loses his. Thousands of jobs are lost.

Yet, are we poorer? No. Every person in the west now has functionally unlimited access to almost every piece of music ever created at negligible costs. My music library is functionally unlimited and it costs me nothing.

Bill Gates has no greater access to music than I do and I have more access to music than even the richest of men in existence prior to a couple decades ago.

That is post-scarcity.

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Now the problem with post-scarcity is that every economic system we have had to date has been based on scarcity; there was only a limited amount of resources to go around, so we need some way to distribute those resources. Goods required work, so we needed some way to encourage people to work. That’s why capitalism works, it distributes resources to an individual according to how others in society value the individual’s contributions to society.

But in post-scarcity, capitalism breaks down. With resources being unlimited, nobody can profit off the production of those resources.

Nobody knows how to handle post-scarcity.

The RIAA fights music pirating as post-scarcity means they can’t profit off of the goods.

Politicians back copyright law and fight pirating, not realizing that everybody is getting richer in actual terms as everybody now has unlimited music access, but because they aren’t paying for it it doesn’t register in GDP. In addition, the ability to create nigh unlimited music with negligible labour becomes “unemployment” according to economic measures.

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That’s all well and fine for music, but it’s not a material good, it’s easily digitized. Certainly the manufacturing of hard goods requires labour.

Does it really?

We can look at 3D printers.These printers can take raw materials (usually plastics or metals) and convert them into durable goods. Industrial printers are expensive and the technology’s still being developed. Simple home printers can now be purchased for less than a used car. Compare their development to that of computers; 30-40 years ago, home computers were a primitive luxury good for businessmen and geeks, large mainframes were commercial technologies, and the internet was a military project. Now, everybody owns a computer with internet access that easily dwarfs the power of those older commercial mainframes and that has hundreds of applications pre-installed.

Why wouldn’t 3D printers advance like this as well? They may be primitive toys for nerds right now, but a couple of decades from now?

Think about it. If your knife broke (or bowl, or computer, or phone, etc.), you just download plans (which was created for free by an online 3D printing design community) for a new knife  to your desktop 3D printer, feed in some metal and plastic, press the start button, and a minute later a new knife.

If you need a bigger object, say a car, you just go to the free neighborhood printer (why wouldn’t it be free, when another printer can print a printer for almost no cost?), stick in your old car to be broken down for raw materials, then have it print out a new car from plans you downloaded to a flash drive earlier.

Think it sound implausible? Why?

We have the basis for the technology, it’s simply a matter of refinement and scale. Remember what happened to computers.

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Also remember what happened to the music industry.

When this happens (and I believe it’s a when, not an if), why would you need to work, if you could print whatever you wanted? Why would someone pay you for your work if almost anything was free? Why would you pay anyone else for something?

The capitalist market would collapse. Scarcity would disappear.

According to official measures though, GDP would plummet and unemployment would skyrocket.

In addition to the printers, robotics will be used to cover some production.

(I will say this: even in post-scarcity, we will probably need a few people keeping an eye on things, but the prestige, trappings of power, and/or conspicuous altruism of such positions will likely be enough to get the requisite number of people to do this).

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What about raw materials? The printers couldn’t create those.

At first, out-sourcing. We’d pay poor foreigners to mine or grow raw materials with easily duplicated goods. Robotics could also be used.

At some point, recycling would be enough. There is a limit to what you could possibly want.

If you already have three cars and want a new one, just break down the old one and have a new one reprinted. Same with anything else.

What if you want more than what you have? My question would be why?

Most goods are simply positional; they are used for showing off your wealth.

If anybody can print a Lamborghini for the same material cost as a Pontiac (free, except for the $100 of scrap metals and plastic), the Lamborghini would be worthless as a positional good.

Once you have what you need: food, transport, housing, recreation, positional goods made by someone else would  mostly meaningless. Any positional good that would bring you status would have be something deliberately created apart from the printers/crowd-sourced plans.

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What about the services?

These would mostly be made unnecessary.

Amazon has made bookstores completely irrelevant. Steam is making video game stores irrelevant. In the future, 3D printing will make stores irrelevant.

Robotics and AI would replace some of the rest.

Communities of interested individuals would take care of the rest. If you had unlimited free time because work became unnecessary, you would pursue and master your favourite activities would you not? So would others. They would form communities and groups just as they do now. They would provide community members services and teaching, just as they do now.

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So what’s the problem?

The problem is that these are not all going to happen together. Different occupations will be effected at different rates.

Manufacturing has already been dying a slow death for decades as robotics and off-shoring has replaced domestic labour. Unskilled blue-collar labour is already pushing towards post-scarcity conditions.

On the other hand, the trades are still doing well. Skilled blue-collar work is harder to replace.

Unskilled white-collar labour has been going there as well; filing replaced by digitization, clerks were replaced by Excel, etc.

Skilled white-collar labour is harder to replace with technology, but even so, we are approaching the tipping point.

In addition, different industries are effected at different rate. The music industry is in it’s death throes, book publishing will follow soon after.  On the other hand, health care still requires human workers and will for a while to come.

So, while the transition to post-scarcity is occurring, we need a way to incentivise those we need to work to continue working. At the same time, we need to keep those who society does not need to work from causing trouble.

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As a society on the road to post-scarcity, we are already so productive that we already pay a large chunk of our surplus to those who aren’t contributing, and we have been doing this for decades. Social security and retirement, welfare, EI, disability, foreign aid, and the like are all us paying some of our surplus to the unproductive.

The problem is, as soon as we start paying people to be unproductive, then people have less incentive to be productive. If we start just distributing good income to the unproductive with no pretense, then we might not have the people we need producing, producing. So all the above usually have some conditions attached, so it is not a generally usable condition.

Yet, we have a lot more people who need employment, than we have work that actually needs doing, so we have to find ways beside just giving people money to keep them occupied.

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We have created a number of strategies to keep unemployment low while post-scarcity works itself out.

First is the welfare state. Welfare and disability, properly stigmatized, can keep the unproductive lower classes from causing trouble, while the stigma keeps productive people from pursuing this option.

Second, jail. If we jail the unproductive that cause trouble, they stop causing trouble.

Third, government. I’m a government worker, but we have to face it, government is on the whole unproductive. Some parts of government are productive, such as infrastructure or health care (assuming a public health system), but the majority of it is not. Redistributive government programs do not produce anything, they just shuffle wealth around while destroying some of it in the process. The regulatory functions of government actively destroy wealth and hinder wealth creation. Not to mention that the taxes necessary to fund government discourage wealth creation. But the government keeps a lot of white-collar people employed.

Fourth, the military. The US has no real external threats and it’s military is vastly superior to anything else on the earth, but the military keeps a lot of people, particularly those people who may be inclined to organized violence, employed.

Fifth, the subsidized. the government subsidizes a lot of economic activity and organizations that would otherwise be unable to continue to exist.

I’m not saying that these were actively created because the people creating them knew we faced unemployment problems due to the transition to post-scarcity, but they do help keep the problem of unemployment in check.

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So, what should I take from this?

It’s simple, the next few decades are going to be very painful economically. Our wealth will increase, so we’ll continually have more goods and services over time, but at the same time our unemployment will increase and GDP might not accurately reflect the increase in goods and services as post-scarcity resources (such as pirated music) will be outside official measures of wealth as they will not require economic transactions.

Economic inequality will likely continue to increase, as the productive capacity continues to rely on fewer people, while more people are replaced by technology and have less access to wealth.

As each industry faces it’s own movement into post-scarcity each will push it’s own form of blowback as they realize their profits and jobs are going to disappear as technology replaces them.

Together, these forces will create great societal tensions. Government redistribution will continue to grow to keep the lid on these tensions.

At some point though, we will reach the tipping point into post-scarcity. After this, work as we currently know it will no longer be a thing and society will rearrange itself to adapt to a totally new situation.

Lightning Round – 2012/05/01

Everybody enjoying May Day? I hope you are.

Did you know that the average person could be making $100,000 a year? The Captain does the math.

A great speech given to the Fed. Long, but read it.

“The president has a very difficult time with the business community. Most people in business and most people who are successful are Republican that’s just a fact of life.” I wonder why?

The system is hungry; it must eat. Poor Sweden.

Marriage is fundamental to the church: when it declines, so to does the church decline.

Related: Why Evangelical Princesses are un-marriageable; a great post from CMDN.

We won! Yay!?!???

How you create a mass-murderer: Teach him to hate himself, then act surprised when he externalizes that hate.

Becoming as weak as your foes doesn’t help you or them.

Shame the beta month; it looks like it could be interesting.

(ht/ SDA, AMN, CC)

The Bookshelf: 30 Days of Discipline

Tonight, I was going to read and review Ferdinand’s two essays: The Age of Onanism and How to Stop Masturbating, but Smashwords is not letting me download them and I don’t have a Kindle reader, so I’ll have to do that another time.

On the other hand, I discovered Bold & Determined today (h/t the Captain), and I mostly like what I’ve read. So, I downloaded Victor Pride’s essay/short book 30 Days of Discipline and it just so happens that tomorrow is going to be the start of a new month. So, in my quest for self-improvement, starting tomorrow, I’m going to give his recommended habits a try.

There are 12 habits he recommends (buy the essay if you want to know what they are, I’m not going to steal his income). Of them, I’m going to modify four habits:

  • For #1, I will make an exception for snacking when hanging out with friends.
  • For #2, I’m going to wake up at 6 am, rather than 5 am, which is acceptable under his plan.
  • For #5, I’m going to do 4-point presses rather than push-ups as it meshes better with my martial arts training.
  • For #6, I’m going to dress better (business casual, rather than jeans), but I’m not going full-tilt with a three piece suit, for two reasons: 1) That would look really out of place at my work. and 2) I only own two suits which I need to get refitted. I’m also dressing lazy on Saturday as well as Sunday.

Out of all of them, #4 is going to be the hardest and is what I’m most likely going to fail at. Which is why I wanted to read Ferdinand’s books. (I’ll discuss that issue more when I read and review his books, hopefully, Thursday).

For my specific goal, I am going to start work on a project I’ve been meaning to do. This is a large project requiring learning skills I don’t have, so there’s no way I’m going to be able to finish it in a month, but I want to at least get started on it. I will write more on this project and others at a later time, probably in the next week.

I might do the occasional update on here to keep me honest and after the 30 days, I’ll do an after action report (here’s hoping I don’t wash out).

Now a review of his essay:

It’s short (25 pages), to the point, and written in a clear, straightforward style similar to how Victor writes on his blog. The essay is a list of 12 habits you have to follow for 30 days, followed by a couple pages of clarification of the purpose of the habit and support for why you should adopt the habit.

Some of the habits seem like they’re going to be hard (aw… poor baby) and others are not as physically demanding, but are the kinds of things that would be easy to forget about in the moment. It’s not an easy plan to follow, but if it was, it would be 30 Days of Leisure, not 30 Days of Discipline, so at least the book follows through on the title. I’m pretty sure that anyone who could master these habits would be a better person for them.

So, if you’re interested in improving yourself and looking for a challenge, check the essay out; it’s not that expensive. That being said, I’m not actually starting on this until tomorrow, so I can’t say it will improve you yet.

I’ll put out a second part to the review when I have my AAR.